Tropical Update Pay Attention with J7409 7/30/19. REMEMBER THIS CAN CHANGE...............
Major Hurricane Erick
The forward motion of the cyclone has slowed since yesterday, and
the initial motion estimate for this advisory is 275/13 kt. In the
mid-levels, Erick is being steered by a ridge to the north that is
expected to build westward over the next couple of days. A slight
turn to the west-northwest and some slowing in forward speed is
expected in the short term as Erick remains a strong hurricane
interacting with the deep-layer flow. There are still notable
differences amongst the track models through this time frame, with
HWRF/COAMPS-TC to the right of the official forecast, and ECMWF to
the left. With most guidance tending to be too slow and poleward to
this point, the official forecast was nudged equatorward, closer to
the well-performing ECMWF guidance, and close to FSSE/HCCA. Toward
the end of the forecast period, Erick will reach the western
periphery of the ridge, allowing the weakened cyclone to gain
latitude.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 13.6N 144.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 14.2N 145.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 14.9N 147.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 15.3N 150.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.8N 152.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 16.8N 157.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.5N 162.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 20.0N 165.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
Hirricane Flossie
The cyclone is expected to be in generally favorable environmental
conditions to strengthen during the next day or so. After that
time, however, the sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane
gradually decrease and the wind shear is expected to increase a
little. A combination of these factors should end the strengthening
trend and induce a slow weakening by the weekend. The NHC intensity
forecast is a tad lower than the previous one, but it lies near the
high end of the model guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA and
IVDR consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 12.7N 123.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 13.4N 125.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.2N 128.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.0N 130.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 16.3N 136.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 18.1N 147.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
Invest 95L and Disturbance 2
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next
several days, producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the
northern Caribbean and the Bahamas. Conditions could become
marginally conducive for development late this week when the
disturbance moves near Florida and the northwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce
a broad area of shower activity. No significant development of this
system is expected for the next few days while it moves westward at
15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds could become more conducive for
development by the weekend while the wave continues westward across
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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